Economic Research that Enhances Future Preparedness
Macro-economic and political developments play critical roles in shaping the business environment and in determining capital allocation decisions within and across countries, be it for real economy businesses or for portfolio fund managers. Whether they are changes in external conditions, political leadership, domestic imbalances, currency valuation, or a major shift in exchange rate policy, such macro factors could make or break an investment in a particular country or its medium to long term prospects.
The Centennial Group’s economic research practice aims to help multilateral institutions, governments, multi-national enterprises, and portfolio managers understand how the trends in the political and economic landscape in emerging economies affect them. We look forward, trying to anticipate the turning points, which could make a major difference to the business and investment environment. These turning points could be political changes, policy moves, the peak or trough of economic cycles, changes in direction of currency valuations or shifts in other economic variables.
Our Expertise in Economic Research
We provide economic research services that include:
- Authoritative assessment of political and economic risks in Asia and Latin America, at individual country as well as regional level. Deep dive studies of the long-term prospects of an individual country or region.
- Analysis of cyclical changes in emerging economies including medium term forecasts for key economic variables.
- Forecasts of how monetary, fiscal, macro-prudential and other cyclical policy tools will be used, based on our internally developed indicators.
- Assessment of long-term regional trends in the emerging economies of Asia (including Central Asia), Latin America, Africa and the Middle East.
- Assessment of efforts and policy proposals toward regional economic and financial integration.
- Analysis of a country’s economic resilience employing our internally developed resilience framework.
We produce a number of regular products for some clients, including:
- A monthly report on Asian political and economic trends.
- A monthly assessment of political and economic risks for the global risk committee of a large European bank.
- Periodic reports on the major political and economic developments and issues in a major Latin American country.
- A weekly report assessing the implications of macro-economic and political developments in Asia.
- Annual advice to a European institutional investor on political and economic risks in major Latin-American economies and relations with the IMF.
- Assessment of macroeconomic policies in various countries in Latin America for a Multilateral Financial Organization.
Examples of recent projects include:
- Study of how fiscal policy is used to contain demand for activities with high social costs such as tobacco, alcohol, gaming and road use for a global corporation.
- Study of mega trends in Asia affecting an individual country in Asia for a multilateral institution.
- Study of economic integration in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations from a bottom-up company perspective, for the aid agency of a donor nation.
- Study of the economic impact of cloud computing and implications for financial regulation, for a global technology corporation.
- A detailed assessment of the multi-decade political and economic outlook for selected countries in Asia.
- An in-depth study of the prospects for economic growth of a large Asian economy, including policy recommendations, for an Asian conglomerate.
- Advise to the chief executive of a large financial group in Japan on its strategy to invest in a large country in South Asia.
- Advice to a group of over 30 hedge funds on its proposed support to a North American economy and thereby help resolve a serious debt crisis.
Meet the principal(s) that lead our Economic Research assignments:
Director of Centennial Group; Chief Executive, Centennial Asia Advisors
Director and Chief Operating Officer
Director of Centennial Group and Chief Executive Officer of Centennial Group Latin America
Director of Centennial Group and Centennial Group Latin America
Manager, Information Analytics, Centennial Group