Scenarios and Modeling
Scenarios and Modeling

Evidence-Based Growth Scenarios and Modeling

A distinguishing feature of our work is that it is always evidence based; our policy and analytic work is grounded in relevant data and supplemented by scenarios derived from one or more of our proprietary in-house models.

For this purpose, during the past fifteen years, Centennial Group has developed a very extensive database covering some 180 countries and going back to 1950. It comprises of hundreds of economic, social, financial, and governance indicators; a majority of indicators provide data from multiple sources (IMF, World Bank, OECD, United Nations, ADB, FAO, IEA, WTO, UNCTAD, US Department of Energy, etc.).

In parallel, we have developed a number of sophisticated models—that use advanced econometric techniques (factor analysis) and database management systems—capable of producing: scenarios of global, regional and national economies; calculating debt sustainability of countries; estimating future national infrastructure requirements by major sectors (power, roads, telecoms etc.); producing indices of financial development and robustness; comparing resilience of countries to external shocks, etc. Indeed, estimation of such indices and long term economic scenarios has become a signature product of the Centennial Group.

Example Assignments in Scenarios and Modeling

Below is a sampling of the types of scenarios and modeling projects the Centennial Group team has conducted for governments, development organizations, and the private sector:

  • Alternate scenarios of year by year evolution of some 50 Asian economies in Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century, for Asia’s largest multilateral development agency.
  • Two different scenarios of Latin American economies between 2012-2050 depending on economic reforms undertaken by the countries, for a major Latin American development bank.
  • Separate studies formulating alternate scenarios of the future long term evolution of Indian, Mexican, Kazakhstani, and Nigerian economies.
  • Estimation of infrastructure investment requirements of India as an input for the formulation of India’s five year plan.
  • Calculation of financial development and stability indices for various countries, for the Emerging Markets Forum.
  • Estimation of resilience indices for over 50 developed and emerging markets for the Emerging Markets Forum.

Our Team

Meet the principal(s) that lead our Scenarios and Modeling assignments:

Claudio Loser

Claudio Loser

Director of Centennial Group and Chief Executive Officer of Centennial Group Latin America

Jose Fajgenbaum

Jose Fajgenbaum

Director of Centennial Group and Centennial Group Latin America

Manu Bhaskaran

Manu Bhaskaran

Director of Centennial Group; Chief Executive, Centennial Asia Advisors

Theodore Ahlers

Theodore Ahlers

Head of Global Trade and Competitiveness Practice

Harpaul Kohli

Harpaul Alberto Kohli

Manager, Information Analytics, Centennial Group

Global Collaboration for Global Development

The Centennial Group sponsors and manages the Emerging Markets Forum, a non-profit international think-tank focused on discussion of policy issues concerning emerging market economies.

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Explore the Results of Our Client Engagements

Learn how we have worked with governments, development organizations, and private sector companies to develop pragmatic plans to bring prosperity to emerging markets and their citizens.

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