Evidence-Based Growth Scenarios and Modeling
A distinguishing feature of our work is that it is always evidence based; our policy and analytic work is grounded in relevant data and supplemented by scenarios derived from one or more of our proprietary in-house models.
For this purpose, during the past fifteen years, Centennial Group has developed a very extensive database covering some 180 countries and going back to 1950. It comprises of hundreds of economic, social, financial, and governance indicators; a majority of indicators provide data from multiple sources (IMF, World Bank, OECD, United Nations, ADB, FAO, IEA, WTO, UNCTAD, US Department of Energy, etc.).
In parallel, we have developed a number of sophisticated models—that use advanced econometric techniques (factor analysis) and database management systems—capable of producing: scenarios of global, regional and national economies; calculating debt sustainability of countries; estimating future national infrastructure requirements by major sectors (power, roads, telecoms etc.); producing indices of financial development and robustness; comparing resilience of countries to external shocks, etc. Indeed, estimation of such indices and long term economic scenarios has become a signature product of the Centennial Group.
Example Assignments in Scenarios and Modeling
Below is a sampling of the types of scenarios and modeling projects the Centennial Group team has conducted for governments, development organizations, and the private sector:
- Alternate scenarios of year by year evolution of some 50 Asian economies in Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century, for Asia’s largest multilateral development agency.
- Two different scenarios of Latin American economies between 2012-2050 depending on economic reforms undertaken by the countries, for a major Latin American development bank.
- Separate studies formulating alternate scenarios of the future long term evolution of Indian, Mexican, Kazakhstani, and Nigerian economies.
- Estimation of infrastructure investment requirements of India as an input for the formulation of India’s five year plan.
- Calculation of financial development and stability indices for various countries, for the Emerging Markets Forum.
- Estimation of resilience indices for over 50 developed and emerging markets for the Emerging Markets Forum.
Our Team
Meet the principal(s) that lead our Scenarios and Modeling assignments:
Theodore Ahlers
Head of Global Trade and Competitiveness Practice; Director of Middle East and Africa, Centennial Group
Explore Our Client Engagements
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Featured Publication
Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century